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Briefing · Leading indicators

A green safety indicator should open a conversation

Lagging indicators tell a leader what has already happened. The useful question is what the same dashboard cannot see.

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Most safety dashboards are built from lagging indicators: events that have already happened, counted and normalized. They are useful, and a falling recordable rate is real progress. This briefing sets out why a green indicator should open a conversation rather than close one.

What a lagging indicator measures

A recordable injury rate counts outcomes across all kinds of work. Serious injuries and fatalities (SIF) are rare and often come from a narrower set of high-energy tasks, so a rate dominated by frequent, lower-severity events can move without saying much about SIF exposure.

Exhibit 1 Illustrative data

In this illustrative review, most high-potential events had a precursor already on record

Where the earliest precursor was recorded, illustrative sample of high-potential events, count

SourceIllustrative data for design purposes only. Not a research finding and not to be quoted.

NoteValues are placeholders chosen to demonstrate the exhibit format. They describe no real events.

Data behind this exhibit
In this illustrative review, most high-potential events had a precursor already on record (Where the earliest precursor was recorded, illustrative sample of high-potential events, count)
ItemValue
Near-miss report11
Maintenance backlog8
Permit deviation6
Audit finding4
No prior record3
Cite this exhibit

Before the Incident, “In this illustrative review, most high-potential events had a precursor already on record,” Exhibit 1 (2026). Illustrative data; not a research finding and not to be quoted. Link

Three questions for Monday morning

  • Which of our critical controls were verified in the field this month, and by whom?
  • Which high-potential events did we learn about from someone who chose to report them?
  • Which indicator would change first if a critical control quietly degraded?

Placeholder: the questions above illustrate the format of this briefing. They are not recommendations drawn from research.

The current report

The controls that prevent a fatality

Many operations have spent a decade driving recordable injury rates down. This report asks whether the controls that prevent a fatality have improved at the same pace, and how a leadership team would know.

Download the report